Sunday, September 28, 2008

NFL picks

Last week we were 2-1. No reason to quit while we are ahead.

Atlanta at Carolina, Carolina -6.5

Sure Matt Ryan made us money last week, but that was at home. Ryan has looked good at home versus bad teams (Detroit, Kansas city), and awful against good teams on the road (Tampa Bay). Carolina, coming off a road loss will aggressively go after Matt Ryan. I think this game is a blow out. The aggressive Carolina Defense will be too much for the young Atalnta Falcons.

Philadelphia at Chicago, Philadelphia -3

Assaunte Samuel, Lito Shepard, and Brian Dawkins are good enough to handle the Bear receivers in man coverage, which means Jim Johnson is free to let his front seven blitz and stunt all day. This will be a nightmare for Orton. The Bears defense sometimes has a tendency to over pursue leaving them vulnerable to counters and screen plays. The Eagles offence is especially suited for this type of attack.

Minnesota at Tennessee, Minnesota +3.5

1-2 teams with a positive PPG differential go onto a 144-125 SU (53.5%) and 144-114 ATS (55.8%) record. This means that for the remainder of the season, these clubs have gone 128-93 SU (57.9%) & 120-95 ATS (56%). Watch out for San Diego, Chicago, and Minnesota.

This is a man’s game. Physical, hard hitting and defensive till the end. 3.5 is too much for the Vikings in a field goal game.

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